October is the most important month of the year for hay planning on a small farm. It's when pasture growth slows to the point where you'll be transitioning to hay-only feeding — and it's the last window before winter supply tightens and emergency purchases become necessary. This guide walks through a complete fall inventory audit with the math to tell you exactly where you stand.
Step 1: Count What You Have
This sounds obvious, but many small farms have a vague sense of their inventory rather than an actual count. Walk your storage and count every bale, separated by type and approximate quality:
- Count round bales separately from square bales
- Note which bales are highest quality (will feed to high-demand animals first) and which are average or lower quality (maintenance animals)
- Identify any bales that show signs of damage — soft spots on the flat ends of round bales, musty smell, visible mold, or obvious weather damage. Count these separately as "compromised" — they may still be feedable for cattle but shouldn't be counted toward your full supply for horses or goats
- Weigh at least 2–3 bales from each batch if you haven't already. The difference between assumed and actual bale weight compounds across 50–100 bales
Step 2: Calculate Your Daily Consumption
Use your animal inventory to calculate total daily hay demand. Reference the feeding guide below or use the Winter Hay Calculator for the full automated calculation.
| Animal Type | Count | Daily lbs each | Total daily lbs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horses | ___ | ~20–26 lbs (1,100-lb avg) | ___ |
| Beef cows (dry) | ___ | ~26–30 lbs (1,200-lb avg) | ___ |
| Beef cows (late gestation) | ___ | ~30–36 lbs | ___ |
| Goats (dry does) | ___ | ~3–5 lbs (100-lb avg) | ___ |
| Sheep (dry ewes) | ___ | ~4–5 lbs (150-lb avg) | ___ |
| Other: ___________ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| Total daily demand | ___ lbs/day | ||
Step 3: Estimate Days of Supply You Have
Convert your inventory to total pounds, account for waste, then divide by daily demand:
- Round bales: Count × average bale weight × (1 − waste%) = usable lbs
- Square bales: Count × average bale weight × (1 − 0.08) = usable lbs (square bales waste ~8% in a good manger)
- Add both totals → Total usable lbs in inventory
- Divide by daily demand → Days of supply on hand
Example: 25 round bales at 950 lbs average, 12% waste = 25 × 950 × 0.88 = 20,900 lbs usable. Daily demand for 3 horses + 6 goats = 68 lbs/day. Days of supply = 20,900 ÷ 68 = 307 days — more than enough for a 150-day winter.
Step 4: Calculate How Many More Bales You Need
If your days-of-supply number is below your expected winter length (plus a 15% buffer), you need to buy more. The formula:
Additional bales needed = ((Winter days × 1.15) − Days on hand) × Daily demand ÷ Usable lbs per bale
Round up — never down. Running short in February is far more costly than having 10 extra bales in April.
Step 5: Act Before November
Supply availability and price both work against you as winter deepens. October and early November are the last good buying windows in most US regions:
- Hay producers often have post-season inventory they're motivated to move before winter — prices may be negotiable
- Second and third cuttings are still available from the current year
- You still have time to inspect and reject poor-quality hay without desperation pressure
- Delivery availability is higher before roads deteriorate and demand spikes
By December, many small-production hay sellers have sold their inventory. By January, you're often competing with every farm that miscalculated their winter supply — at prices that reflect that competition.
Animals to Recount in Fall
Fall is also when you should update your animal count for winter planning. Common changes that affect hay demand:
- Cull animals vs keep animals: Fall is traditional culling time for beef operations. Every animal sold or processed reduces your winter hay demand.
- Pregnant does and ewes: Animals that bred in fall will be in late gestation in late winter — when their hay demand increases 15–20%. Factor this into your late-winter calculations.
- New additions: Any animals acquired in fall need to be added to your demand calculation before you lock in your purchase quantity.
- Horses coming off pasture: If horses have been on pasture all summer, their transition to hay-only feeding means their full calculated daily requirement is now on your supply — often a significant jump from summer levels.